2025: The Year We’ll Look Back at Ontario Real Estate and Say, “I Wish I Bought Then.

The real estate market in Ontario — especially here in Grey Bruce — has been a tough year for sellers. Active listings are at decade highs,   buyers picky, and homes are sitting longer or selling for less than they would have a few years ago. For sellers, 2025 may be a year they’re glad to move past. For buyers, it could become the year they regret not pulling the trigger. And when you look at the numbers, it’s very possible that 2025 ends up being remembered as the best buying window of this entire decade. Here are four reasons I think 2025 might be the year buyers look back on and wish they had acted.

1. Interest Rates Have Come Down — and This May Be the Sweet Spot

Interest rates have dropped 2.75% from their recent peak, creating a window of improved affordability. While rates may drift a bit lower, there’s no guarantee they’ll return anywhere near the ultra-low levels we experienced between 2009–2021. Those rates were historically unusual — and unlikely to come back anytime soon.

What matters today is certainty: buyers can lock in a reasonable rate now, rather than waiting on predictions that may never materialize — or worse, missing the opportunity if rates rise again while prices rebound.

2. Buyer Hesitation = Less Competition 

With consumer confidence near historic lows, many buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for “perfect” conditions. That hesitation has pushed active listings to decade highs, giving buyers something we haven’t seen in years:
choice and negotiating power.

Unlike the pandemic frenzy — where buyers competed with 10+ offers, paid over asking, and waived conditions just to have a chance — today’s buyers can:

• Include financing conditions

• Include inspection conditions

• Include conditions of sale

• Negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs

For move-up buyers who need to sell before buying, this is one of the best markets in years to make a transition safely and strategically.

3. SellersAre Motivated — But That Won’t Last

With increased inventory and longer days on market, prices have now softened for multiple months in our local area:

• 3 straight months of declines in Grey Bruce

• 6 straight months of declines in Owen Sound

From peak pricing, values are now down roughly 15–20%, with month-over-month softening continuing. We’re also seeing wider gaps between list price and sale price, rising price reductions, and more willingness from sellers to negotiate

4. Supply & Demand Pressure Is Still Building

While prices have cooled short-term, the underlying supply challenge hasn’t disappeared:

Ontario and BC remain the only provinces experiencing flat or declining prices

New construction has slowed

Home sales remain under 10 year averages

.

Image source: Edge Analytics

It’s hard to say where the market will go in 2026, but it does feel as if the worst is behind us for 2025, with house price expectations set to rise in 2026.

Tim Matthews is a Real Estate Broker providing real estate services to the Owen Sound and Surrounding Regions. For a full buyer or home selling consultation, reach out to time at 519-375-7153 or timmatthews.ca

Sources:

Edge Analytics, CREA, Habistat